Climateprediction: Publication of results from the BBC climate change experiment

This week the first results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment were published in Nature Geoscience. The experiment, first launched in 2006, represents the first multi thousand member ensemble of simulations using a complex coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, and addresses some of the uncertainties that previous forecasts, using simpler models or only a few dozen simulations, may have over-looked. Results from the experiment suggest that a global warming of 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 is as equally plausible as a rise of 1.4 degrees (relative to the 1961-1990 average). This range is derived from the range of simulations in the ensemble that accurately reproduce observed temperature changes over the last 50 years.
The results suggest that the world is very likely to cross the '2 degrees barrier' at some point this century if emissions continue unabated, and that those planning for the impacts of climate change need to consider the possibility of warming of up to 3 degrees (above the 1961-1990 average) by 2050 even on a mid-range emission scenario. This is a faster rate of warming than most other models predict.
We would like to thank all the participants involved in the BBC climate change experiment for their continued support to the project!
Links:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v.../ngeo1430.html
Media Coverage:
Temperatures could rise by 3C by 2050, models suggest, BBC News online, 25/03/2012. Global temperatures could rise by 1.4-3.0C (2.5-5.4F) above levels for late last century by 2050, a computer simulation has suggested. Almost 10,000 climate simulations were run on volunteers' home computers. The projections, published in Nature Geoscience, are somewhat higher than those from other models. Myles Allen of the School of Geography and Environment and Department of Physics, Oxford University, principal investigator of climateprediction.net, said other climate modelling groups' data did not "set out to explore the full range of uncertainty, which is why studies like ours are needed."
10,000 climate models predict significant global temperature rise, Wired.co.uk, 26/03/2012, Duncan Geere. A project to model the earth's atmosphere run on almost 10,000 home computers predicts that the temperature of the atmosphere will rise between 1.4C and 3C by 2050. 'It's only by running such a large number of simulations - with model versions deliberately chosen to display a range of behaviour - that you can get a handle on the uncertainty present in a complex system such as our climate,' said Dan Rowlands of Oxford University's Department of Physics, lead author of a paper describing the research in Nature Geoscience. 'Our work was only possible because thousands of people donated their home computer time to run these simulations.'
An even warmer future ahead, Discovery News (US), 26/03/2012, Emily Sohn.
Earth warming faster than expected, ScienceNOW (US), 25/03/2012, Sid Perkins.
Study: Global temperatures could rise 5 degrees by 2050, USA Today online (blog), 25/03/2012.
Fears of 3C global warming by 2050, The Press Association, 25/03/2012.
Study: Global temps may jump 5 degrees by 2050, Azcentral.com 26/03/2012.
Temperatures 'could rise by 3C by 2050', News Track India, 26/03/2012.
Temperatures ‘could rise by 3°C by 2050’, The Hindu (India), 26/03/12.
Scientists issue emission warning, Morning Star, 26/03/2012.
Fears of 3C global warming by 2050, Daily Express online, 25/03/2012, Unattributed.
Fears of 3C global warming by 2050, Evening Standard online, 25/03/2012, Unattributed.
Climatewire - http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/26/3
IRI News - http://www.irinnews.org/Report/95182/CLIMATE-CHANGE-A-three-degree-warme...

Stories with no Oxford mention:
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/894217-rising-temperatures-spark-irreversibl...
http://www.scotsman.com/news/runaway-climate-change-this-century-scienti...
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/radio/onairhighlights/glo...


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