Quote Originally Posted by pinhodecarlos View Post
Their status page shows that some candidates have been now searched up to 7.8 million digits. They certainly seem overdue for a prime

Ummmmm... if primes followed a pattern and could be predicted, there wouldn't be the need for a search, would there? If you roll a die three times in a row and get a two each time, what are the odds of getting a two on the next roll? One in six. Previous results have no effect on the odds of the next roll. What we know from the patterns is that as numbers get larger, primes tend to be further and further apart. But, we can't extrapolate when the next one will be found as there is no real way of knowing that. Given that the number of digits doubled since the last prime was found, one begins to to question whether the 17 or bust concept holds true for really large numbers or whether it was just a coincidence that it worked for smaller numbers. Then again, a prime could be found at any time. Then again, the odds can't be any worse than stumbling upon a number which may prove the collatz conjecture wrong.